Here we are now in the Spring of 2024, which definitely does not represent the greatest economy and real estate market that we’ve ever seen. So I thought it would be a good idea to now give you my take on what I think we will experience throughout the rest of the year.
With this in mind, I’m going to give it to you straight, and not sugar-coat it.
First of all, based upon the information that I’ve been tracking from sources who I trust, I don’t believe we’re going to see the economy improve between now and the end of the year. As I mentioned in a previous article that I’ve written, if interest rates came down by just 1%, this would give a tremendous boost to the total volume of real estate transactions, but right now, I believe that any substantial reduction in interest rates between now and the end of the year, isn’t likely.
With this in mind, let’s consider this:
When Ronald Reagan was President of the United States in the early 1980s, the entire Federal debt was approximately $1 trillion. But today, just the annual interest on the Federal debt alone is now approximately $1 trillion, which shows us how out of control our Federal spending has become.
In addition, the Federal debt is now accelerating at the rate of approximately $1 trillion every 100 days, and even our own Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, has chastised the government by saying that this level of spending, and our current fiscal path, is “unsustainable.”
So when a major, respected government official publicly criticizes the government like this, you can be assured that it has to be because he sees this as being a very serious situation.
In addition to this, we know that massive government spending leads to inflation, something that we’ve all been experiencing, and when inflation runs rampant, this now creates a very minimal chance of seeing interest rates being reduced.
Then we’ve got the upcoming November election, so let’s enjoy this current, relatively-speaking, moment of peace, because as we get closer and closer to November, the pressure cooker will be turned up, and the people on the different political sides will begin getting much angrier at each other, as if we believed that experiencing even more anger, could even be possible.
So in my opinion, it’s going to get ugly, and then after the election, the supporters of that Presidential candidate who comes in second, will be screaming and yelling that election fraud has taken place. Because as we’ve come to learn from both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections combined, there seem to be those who believe that election fraud only happens, when the Presidential candidate who they voted for themselves loses the election, but it doesn’t happen whenever their own candidate wins the election.
Then we’ve got the ever-increasing threat of war expanding on an even greater level globally, which is definitely not good, but it also means that if this happens, this could greatly increase our level of inflation, too, as government spending would then very likely be increasing to even higher levels.
So with all of this being said, things will definitely be heating up in the months ahead, as we get closer to the election.
But as I mentioned in another article that I wrote 1-2 years ago, with the expansion of war and the overall economic uncertainty that’s been happening worldwide, more foreign money will still be moving into the U.S., because people will believe that their money will be safer here, and this has definitely already been happening. Then in keeping this in mind, and in continually looking to create more opportunities for brokers, I’m currently working with a commercial real estate brokerage team right now, to get them to plant their flag as being the one team that investors from one specific country should be utilizing to move their money over here, and buy real estate, as we concur together that many more people from this one country will be wanting to move their money into the U.S., and we’ve seen no other U.S. commercial real estate brokerage team marketing themselves towards these investors.
So while I wish I could tell you that things will be easing up and getting better economically in the months ahead, I don’t believe this will happen.
With this in mind, I believe it’s time to batten down the hatches and get ready in moving forward, as I think that many people and businesses will be gritting their teeth, as we continue walking down this path throughout the remainder of 2024.
The impact of this will vary within each local economy, and sometimes within the different CRE specialties within the local economies, too.
But there’s always opportunity, and this reminds me of the time years ago when I was talking with an expert in the stock market, who had more than 40 years of experience working in it. He said to me, “What’s happening with the Dow and the S&P 500 isn’t nearly as important, as what’s happening with the stocks you own right now.”
This drove home the point to me, that there’s always opportunity to make money, no matter what is going on in the world, depending on your own decisions, and the actions that you’re taking right now.
With this in mind, keep looking for opportunities to excel in this market, and my hope for the entire brokerage community is that what will be going on within the economy, will bring about more sellers who become willing to sell at today’s market prices, which can then increase transaction volume for the entire commercial real estate brokerage community.
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